The Trump Doctrine Offers a Smarter Path to Global Stability

There is a peculiar sickness afflicting Western capitals, and Washington is no exception. It is the missionary impulse to save the world by reshaping it in our own image. Since the Cold War’s end, American foreign policy has been haunted by a utopian delusion: that liberal democracy can be exported at gunpoint. The wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria were not fought out of pure self-interest, nor even cold realism. They were crusades, attempts to purify the world through power. It is this conceit that the Trump Doctrine rejects. In its place, it offers a vision rooted in realism, restraint, and results.

Let us begin with the data. Since 2001, the United States has spent more than $8 trillion on wars. Over 2 million Americans have served in combat, with over 7,000 service members having lost their lives in combat, and hundreds of thousands more have returned home wounded, physically or psychologically. Tragically, in the past twenty-four years, more than 159,000 veterans have died by suicide. The rationale was always the same: liberate, democratize, and rebuild. But liberation turned to occupation, democratization collapsed into tribal violence, and rebuilding produced only rubble. Iraq was meant to be a shining example. Instead, it became a cautionary tale. The removal of Saddam Hussein unshackled sectarian furies that had been held in check by tyranny. Power flowed into the hands of Iran and its militias, and out of the hands of American planners. ISIS emerged from that chaos.

Afghanistan followed a similar arc. The Taliban fell quickly. But two decades and two trillion dollars later, the Biden administration executed a chaotic and disastrous withdrawal, handing the country back to the Taliban in full retreat. That exit cost the lives of 13 American service members, 11 Marines, one Navy corpsman, and one Army soldier, and killed approximately 170 Afghan civilians in a suicide bombing at the Kabul airport. Corruption had already thrived in our client government, legitimacy had long since faltered, and the army we built crumbled without a fight. Even the roads and schools we funded were often ghostly illusions, maintained only on paper. The collapse was not sudden. It was inevitable.

Libya, where America led from behind, offers a textbook lesson in unintended consequences. In toppling Gaddafi, we destroyed the only authority capable of holding the country together. The result was warlordism, open-air slave markets, and jihadist safe havens. The consequences were not limited to Libyans. The US diplomatic mission in Benghazi was attacked by Islamist militants, resulting in the deaths of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens. President Obama later admitted this was his worst mistake. But that mistake, like Iraq and Afghanistan, flowed from the same premise: that Western virtue, expressed through force, could engineer order abroad.

Enter the Trump Doctrine. It is not isolationism. It is not pacifism. It is realism, as articulated most recently in President Trump’s major foreign policy address in Riyadh.

The Trump Doctrine rests on seven foundational principles:

First, America First, anchored by Strategic Partnerships. The United States will prioritize its national security, economic prosperity, and global influence while forming durable partnerships with nations that share its goals of stability and growth. As the President made clear, "We don’t go in and out like other people. It’ll remain that way." Economic interdependence is central, with foreign partners purchasing record volumes of American goods cementing alliances through mutual prosperity.

Second, Peace Through Strength. A $1 trillion military budget has rebuilt the armed forces into the most formidable on Earth, and Trump deploys it decisively when needed. He cited the defeat of ISIS in three weeks and the 1,100 precision strikes on the Houthis in Yemen as examples of power used not to occupy, but to end threats.

Third, Economic Leverage as a Diplomatic Tool. Trump’s doctrine substitutes trade for troop deployments and sanctions for sermonizing. With $10 trillion in foreign investment and nearly half a million new jobs, Trump models economic dynamism as the true path to peace. When he mediated between India and Pakistan, his terms were commercial: “Let’s not trade nuclear missiles. Let’s trade the things you make so beautifully.”

Fourth, Regional Empowerment over Western Intervention. The era of exporting democracy is over. Instead, the US supports indigenous leaders who reform on their own terms. Trump hailed those embracing their national traditions and using them to pursue peace, prosperity, and innovation. He made clear: America will export technology, not ideology.

Fifth, Countering Rogue Actors. Iran remains a focal point, called out directly for looting its people to fund terrorism. But even here, Trump balances iron pressure with olive branches. Should Tehran abandon its nuclear and terror ambitions, he offers partnership and prosperity.

Sixth, Promoting Peace and Stability Through Diplomacy. The Trump Doctrine envisions America as peacemaker and unifier, with the Abraham Accords as a model. Trump celebrated the India-Pakistan ceasefire, negotiations with Hamas over hostage releases, and upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks, all brokered not by force, but by credible diplomacy.

Seventh, Rejection of Ideological Crusades. Trump’s realism leaves no room for moral theater. “It is God’s job to sit in judgment,” he said. The United States will not judge foreign regimes by Western ideals, but by their alignment with stability, prosperity, and American interests.

Taken together, these principles comprise a coherent, realist foreign policy. They prioritize strength and leverage over interventionism and sermonizing. They reject ideological wars while embracing strategic deals. They elevate peace above transformation. In short, they make the world safer without bankrupting American power.

It holds, first, that the United States must pursue its interests, not its illusions. Second, that peace is best preserved not by moral crusades, but by credible strength. Third, that diplomacy, trade, and strategic restraint can often achieve what war cannot. And fourth, that respecting sovereignty, even of adversaries, is not a sign of weakness but of wisdom.

Now in his second term, President Trump has acted swiftly and with strategic clarity. In just his first hundred days, his administration has secured trillions in economic and defense-related agreements throughout the Middle East, bolstering both American industry and regional stability. The Abraham Accords, once thought to be a capstone, now appear to have been just the beginning. These deals are not merely transactions, they are foundations for deeper alliances, aligning our interests with key regional partners in ways that speeches and sanctions never could. By building mutual prosperity, they create a durable architecture of peace and cooperation that military interventions have consistently failed to achieve.

Perhaps nowhere is the Trump Doctrine more vividly on display than in Syria. The most striking case of strategic recalibration lies in Trump’s pivot toward Damascus. Syria is now led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who rose to power after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Known during the civil war as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, al-Sharaa was once the notorious leader of a jihadist faction born from the entrails of Al-Qaeda. In Trump’s first term, he put a $10 million bounty on his head. And now? Trump rescinded the bounty and reestablished diplomatic ties with his government. This is not a lapse in memory, but a masterclass in realpolitik. Trump isn’t offering absolution, he’s wielding recognition as a tool of influence. It’s not appeasement, it’s leverage, precisely the kind of clear-eyed recalibration that defines his second-term doctrine.

This approach has already borne fruit. When Arab leaders pressed Trump to officially recognize the Persian Gulf as the “Arab Gulf,” he publicly entertained the idea, sending Tehran into a predictable fit of nationalist fury. But Trump wasn’t bluffing, he was bargaining. He dangled the symbolic concession, then used it as leverage. Within days, Iran’s leadership signaled a dramatic shift: high-ranking advisers to the Supreme Leader announced their willingness to halt uranium enrichment as part of a new framework with the Trump administration. What once seemed an intractable impasse now stands on the brink of resolution, not because of empty gestures or moral grandstanding, but because Trump’s doctrine wields recognition and rhetoric as instruments of pressure. Peace, in this framework, isn’t begged for. It’s brokered, through leverage, clarity, and unapologetic strength.

The President has made one thing unmistakably clear: he will not sacrifice American lives chasing utopian visions of global transformation. His doctrine is grounded in strength, sovereignty, and strategic clarity. Allies and adversaries alike are held to account. NATO, long a symbol of free-riding diplomacy, is finally changing, most member states now meet the 2% defense spending threshold, with several exceeding 4%. At next week’s 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, all members are expected to formally commit to an ambitious new goal: raising defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade. Meanwhile, America’s strategic position in the Middle East has never been more secure. Israel remains firmly protected. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and even Qatar have all expanded their security and economic partnerships with Washington, recognizing that under this President, the price of American partnership is responsibility, not dependency.

Contrast all this with the nation-building model. That model rests on a flawed anthropology: that democracy can be implanted like software, that societies are clay waiting to be molded by technocrats and soldiers. The Trump Doctrine denies this. It understands that political systems are products of history, culture, and consent. Attempts to override them with firepower produce backlash, not liberalism.

Now consider the moral case. Is it not more ethical to avoid wars that cannot be won? To decline to bomb cities in pursuit of governance models their inhabitants did not ask for? Realism is often caricatured as cynical. In fact, it is humble. It refuses to pretend that America can fix what it does not understand. It seeks peace not through domination, but through prudence.

Critics insist that Trump’s foreign policy is transactional. Indeed, it is. And that is its virtue. It judges outcomes, not intentions. It rewards allies who contribute to our security and trade, and it pressures those who freeload. Trump demands that NATO members meet their obligations. He stands by Israel while withdrawing from pointless entanglements. He moved the embassy to Jerusalem not as provocation, but as recognition of reality.

But what of human rights? What of liberal values? Trump has not abandoned them. He has prioritized them differently. He understands that empty lectures do not change regimes. Leverage does. By building economic and strategic leverage through trade and alliances, he makes America more capable of influencing others, not less.

In truth, it is the old doctrine, the pre-Trump doctrine, that was naive. It promised democracy in Baghdad, civil society in Kandahar, unity in Tripoli. It delivered none of these. What it delivered was bloodshed, debt, and disillusionment. As J.D. Vance noted when he was in the Senate, “The neoconservatives spread democracy with B-52s. Trump spreads peace with Boeing contracts.” The line is sharp because the distinction is.

The Trump Doctrine is not without its challenges. Diplomacy with rogue regimes is never clean. Transactionalism requires judgment. But unlike its predecessors, it does not mistake aspiration for strategy. It begins with the world as it is, not as academics wish it were. And that difference makes all the difference.

The future belongs not to empire, but to prudence. If America is to endure as a force for good, it must abandon its illusions. It must stop trying to refashion the world and start securing its place within it. The Trump Doctrine offers the path: peace through strength, respect for sovereignty, and deals that deliver.

If you enjoy my work, please consider subscribing https://x.com/amuse.